US market indices are shown in real time, except for the S&P 500 which is refreshed every two minutes. Your CNN account Log in to your CNN account And given the holiday sales forecast, he’s also expecting “some retrenchment” in US economic growth for the fourth quarter of this year.Ĭoming off last quarter’s red-hot GDP report, which found the economy grew at an annualized rate of almost 5%, he said it would be “surprising given all the negative headwinds that we have in the economy for growth to grow from where we already are this year.” However, “it sets the tone for where growth will be heading in the next year,” said Michael Zdinak, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. A report she coauthored with Chadha predicts holiday sales will grow “a fairly modest 1% to 3%” this year. “That’s just one data point,” said Chedly Louis, vice president of corporate finance at Moody’s Investors Services. The experts CNN spoke to were all in agreement: Holiday spending data - no matter how good or bad - doesn’t represent the state of the entire US economy. What does this mean for the economy in 2024? ![]() It means the spending growth it reported was “driven by net-new demand, not simply higher prices,” Adobe said. ![]() That’s because prices were lower across the wide range of categories that Adobe tracks, the company said. If the data were adjusted for inflation, it would show even stronger spending growth. That isn’t happening as much with intangible purchases like travel, fitness and entertainment, she added.īut the opposite effect was true in the Adobe data. “After enormous growth in spending over the last several years, this urge to trade down is moderating increases, particularly across a range of categories of concrete goods,” Charm told CNN. It’s a sign that consumers are finding cheaper alternatives, said Tamara Charm, a partner at McKinsey who leads the company’s consumer insights hub. But that represents a steep deceleration from last Black Friday when sales were 12% higher compared to Black Friday in 2021. The tug-of-war is on between retailers wary of throw-away prices and deal-hungry Black Friday shoppersĬonsumers spent 2.5% more, not adjusted for inflation, on purchases online and in stores on Black Friday compared to last year, according to Mastercard’s SpendingPulse insights. Emily Elconin/Getty Images North America/Getty Images The National Retail Federation projects that an estimated 182 million are planning to shop in-stores and online through the five-day Thanksgiving weekend. Shoppers look at clothes while others walk around Twelve Oaks Mall on Novemin Novi, Michigan. It mainly boils down to cooling inflation and deflation, he said, which has been especially evident across some of the most popular goods categories including toys, electronics and apparel. There is a good reason behind the expected slowdown, said Aditya Bhave, senior US economist at Bank of America. ![]() Nevertheless, a slowdown may not be as worrisome as it sounds. That’s below the pre-pandemic average of 3.9% and well below rates seen in recent years, according to an analysis from S&P Global Market Intelligence. This year, dollar sales growth for the holidays in the United States is forecast to slow to 3.3% from 6% last year. And for Cyber Monday, the numbers were even stronger - consumers spent $12.4 billion, a 9.6% increase from 2022.ĭuring the peak hour, shoppers spent $15.7 million every minute, Adobe said. So far, the data is making the US consumer look pretty strong.Īdobe Analytics reported a record $9.8 billion in Black Friday online sales, up 7.5% from 2022, not accounting for inflation. However, in bad times, when unemployment rates are elevated, consumers are more likely to cut back on spending in general - and especially on holiday gifts. In good times, when a lot of consumers have jobs, shoppers are easily lured into spending liberally on holiday gifts. American spending has kept the economy going since the pandemic.
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